Six risk systems are converging on this market at once. Come and see how to read them... and how to position with discipline instead of fear.

The first half of 2026 handed the S&P 500 a solid +9.6%, and it was not easy money. A war, an oil spike and a stubborn inflation impulse fought a market drunk on AI enthusiasm the whole way up.

The second half looks harder. Record valuations. A hawkish new Fed chair. The midterm-year pattern. Surging bond yields. A second oil-driven inflation impulse. Shortages creeping in from a closed Strait. And a market finally questioning the AI spending spree.

In this free, live session, three-decade markets veteran Simon Ree walks through every one of these pressure systems, and the disciplined process that returned +42.33% through a tricky first half.
 

Any one of these is manageable. All six at once is a storm system.

Record valuations. A composite of CAPE, trailing and forward P/E, price-to-book and EV/EBITDA puts equities at or near all-time highs. Current valuation equals future gravity.

A new, hawkish Fed chair. Almost every new Fed chair in the past 90 years has faced an equity drawdown inside their first nine months. Warsh's test looks due.

The midterm-year pattern. Since 1974, every midterm election year has delivered an S&P drawdown, averaging somewhere near -21% peak-to-trough.

Surging bond yields. Higher yields compete with stocks, reprice debt, and crush the economics of every future promise, from robotaxis to half-built data centres.

A second inflation impulse. Oil is climbing again, threatening to reignite inflation just as the market declared the war won.
Shortages on the horizon. With the Strait closed, a supply squeeze is building into year-end... fertiliser, petrochemicals, ethane, helium, and the rare-earth stack renegotiated with China.

And the market is finally growing sceptical of endless AI capex from the hyperscalers, the one story holding it all up.